Founders
How to build a bottom-up market estimate for AI voice agents
AI voice agents: Build a bottom-up market estimate from a defined buyer population and a plausible purchasing unit.
Build a bottom-up market estimate from a defined buyer population and a plausible purchasing unit. Start with the segment the company could actually serve. Separate reachable accounts from an entire industry's headline spending.
Start with the decision
Show the count source, inclusion rules, annual spending assumption, adoption constraints, and sensitivity to each input. Use ranges where evidence is weak. Keep the initial obtainable segment distinct from an expansion thesis.
The illustrative scenario
This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.
The fictional product handles appointment requests for a multi-location service business. A caller may change their request mid-conversation, and the scheduling system is the final record of an available slot.
A short call is not useful if it books the wrong appointment. Separate successful scheduling from hangups, transfers, and calls where the caller never confirmed the details.
Separate a market assumption from its arithmetic
Assume the fictional team has $240,000.00 available and uses $40,000.00 each month. Dividing gives 6.0 months under a constant-burn assumption. That quotient ignores payment timing, hiring, one-time bills, and uncertain collections. It is a starting point for a dated cash plan, not a prediction of when the company will run out of money.
The market side of the same exercise assumes 850 reachable accounts, each spending $26,400.00 annually. Multiplication explains the model; it does not establish that those accounts exist, can be reached, or will pay. Replace each invented input with sourced evidence and preserve a smaller-segment scenario.
Connect the two models only after identifying the customer milestone the budget can support. Compare completed, correct bookings with the existing phone process. Include repeat calls and staff repair time instead of measuring call duration alone. A financing plan should show the work and decision dates between current evidence and that milestone. Keep future financing and market expansion conditional, and ask a qualified finance professional to review formal forecasts.
| Item | Illustration |
|---|---|
| Fictional cash available | $240,000.00 |
| Assumed monthly net cash use | $40,000.00 |
| Simple runway quotient | 6.0 months |
| Assumed annual customer spending | $26,400.00 |
| Illustrative reachable accounts | 850 |
| Account count × annual spending | $22,440,000.00 |
Use this worksheet
Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.
- Who is counted?
- Why are they eligible buyers?
- What annual unit is assumed?
- Which source supports the count?
- What constraint limits reach?
Questions specific to this scenario
- Who confirms the booking?
- What happens when a caller interrupts?
- How is a failed transfer recovered?
Collect permissioned test calls, interruption cases, confirmation records, and failed booking attempts. Keep different languages and noisy environments visible in the sample.
A concrete next test
Run permissioned tests with an interruption, an unavailable appointment, and a failed transfer. Ask the scheduling owner to verify the final records, then inspect what the caller was told. A correct transcript alone does not establish a correct booking.
Interpret the result
The estimate is useful when a reader can replace an assumption and understand the result. Arithmetic does not validate a buyer count or willingness to pay; those inputs need separate evidence.
Compare completed, correct bookings with the existing phone process. Include repeat calls and staff repair time instead of measuring call duration alone.
Sources and method
These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.