How can a scout develop a sourcing thesis around a consumer product startup?

A sourcing thesis explains which founders and problems a scout can encounter and understand through a real network. It should include exclusions, stage, and the fund's mandate. A broad interest in technology is not the same as a repeatable way to find relevant companies.

Start with the decision

Map the communities and work where the scout has trusted access. Compare that access with the fund's actual criteria. Ask what evidence the scout can contribute beyond a publicly available company description.

The illustrative scenario

This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.

The fictional company offers a paid learning app. Early signups followed a launch promotion, and the founder is testing whether users return without discounts. Marketing, support, and content costs vary across cohorts.

A download or free trial does not establish retention or willingness to pay. Separate acquisition cohorts, renewal behavior, refunds, and incentives before extrapolating growth.

Turn the scenario into an evidence decision

Consider a review of a consumer product startup in which a confident explanation arrives before the supporting records. Start with the first question in the table. Write down what an answer would change: the next interview, the experiment's scope, a request for specialist review, or a decision to wait. A question without a consequence can produce a longer document while adding little understanding.

Next, inspect the record named in the table and record its date, owner, permission boundary, and limitations. Inspect consented aggregate cohort data, paid renewals, acquisition spending, refunds, and changes in the product experience. Keep sponsored or incentivized usage visible. If the record contradicts the explanation, preserve both accounts and ask which definition, period, or workflow differs. Do not silently select the version that makes the opportunity look strongest.

Finish with a conditional statement: if the specified evidence supports the claim under these conditions, take the named next step; otherwise investigate the unresolved question. A thesis is useful when it helps the scout choose where to spend time and what to pass on. Revisit it when the fund's mandate or the scout's actual access changes. This worked exercise is about the decision process. It does not assert that a fictional company has met a real diligence standard or that a template can authorize an investment.

Use this worksheet

Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.

1. Which community provides access?
2. What problem is understood?
3. What does the fund exclude?
4. What evidence can the scout add?
5. What relationship needs permission?

Questions specific to this scenario

• Who renews without a discount?
• Which acquisition cohort is comparable?
• What happens after the promotion ends?

Inspect consented aggregate cohort data, paid renewals, acquisition spending, refunds, and changes in the product experience. Keep sponsored or incentivized usage visible.

A concrete next test

Compare a launch-promotion cohort with a later group using the same renewal and refund definitions. Ask what changed in price, acquisition channel, and product experience. Avoid attributing a blended retention change to the product before checking those differences.

Interpret the result

A thesis is useful when it helps the scout choose where to spend time and what to pass on. Revisit it when the fund's mandate or the scout's actual access changes.

Compare continued paid use with the initial launch spike. A narrow engaged cohort can be more informative than a large blended signup total.

Sources and method

These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.

• Hustle Fund: Venture Capital Scout Programs
• Investor.gov: Private Equity Funds