How can an angel distinguish references from independent evidence for a developer infrastructure startup?

Distinguish a source's direct observation from their opinion, inference, or relationship with the company. References can be informative and biased at the same time. Important claims deserve a provenance trail and, where feasible, corroboration.

Start with the decision

For each claim, record the source, relationship, date, actual observation, and available supporting record. Seek permission before sharing private statements. Preserve contradictions instead of selecting only the reference that supports the preferred decision.

The illustrative scenario

This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.

The fictional company maintains an open-source integration library and offers a hosted service. Downloads are growing, but paying teams are few. A small group of maintainers handles support, releases, and infrastructure incidents.

Community activity and commercial demand overlap imperfectly. Count organizations and actual production use separately from package downloads, forks, and repeat installs.

Turn the scenario into an evidence decision

Consider a review of a developer infrastructure startup in which a confident explanation arrives before the supporting records. Start with the first question in the table. Write down what an answer would change: the next interview, the experiment's scope, a request for specialist review, or a decision to wait. A question without a consequence can produce a longer document while adding little understanding.

Next, inspect the record named in the table and record its date, owner, permission boundary, and limitations. Review production references, hosted conversion cohorts, support workload, repository ownership, and release history. Check the permission to reuse code and data rather than assuming public availability grants every right. If the record contradicts the explanation, preserve both accounts and ask which definition, period, or workflow differs. Do not silently select the version that makes the opportunity look strongest.

Finish with a conditional statement: if the specified evidence supports the claim under these conditions, take the named next step; otherwise investigate the unresolved question. Source quality depends on relevance and independence as well as reputation. A detailed firsthand account can answer a narrow question while remaining insufficient to support a broader claim about the company. This worked exercise is about the decision process. It does not assert that a fictional company has met a real diligence standard or that a template can authorize an investment.

Use this worksheet

Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.

1. What was directly observed?
2. When was it observed?
3. What relationship exists?
4. Can a record corroborate it?
5. Which source disagrees?

Questions specific to this scenario

• Which users have buying authority?
• What makes a hosted account renew?
• Who can maintain the critical dependencies?

Review production references, hosted conversion cohorts, support workload, repository ownership, and release history. Check the permission to reuse code and data rather than assuming public availability grants every right.

A concrete next test

Ask one production user of the free library and one hosted customer what would make them switch or stop paying. Keep their roles and deployment needs separate. Compare their answers with the proposed commercial conversion path and actual support workload.

Interpret the result

Source quality depends on relevance and independence as well as reputation. A detailed firsthand account can answer a narrow question while remaining insufficient to support a broader claim about the company.

Compare the commercial workflow with the free alternative. Identify who has budget for reliability, support, or managed operations.

Sources and method

These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.

• Angel Capital Association: Knowledge Center
• Investor.gov: Private Equity Funds