How can an angel write a decision memo about a consumer product startup?

Write a decision memo that separates the company story from the investor's reasoning. State the question, evidence, competing interpretations, terms needing review, and unresolved risks. A memo should remain understandable after enthusiasm for the meeting fades.

Start with the decision

Use a claim-evidence-judgment structure and include a reason the investment could fail. Record what would change the conclusion. Keep any personal suitability or allocation decision separate from a generic educational example.

The illustrative scenario

This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.

The fictional company offers a paid learning app. Early signups followed a launch promotion, and the founder is testing whether users return without discounts. Marketing, support, and content costs vary across cohorts.

A download or free trial does not establish retention or willingness to pay. Separate acquisition cohorts, renewal behavior, refunds, and incentives before extrapolating growth.

Turn the scenario into an evidence decision

Consider a review of a consumer product startup in which a confident explanation arrives before the supporting records. Start with the first question in the table. Write down what an answer would change: the next interview, the experiment's scope, a request for specialist review, or a decision to wait. A question without a consequence can produce a longer document while adding little understanding.

Next, inspect the record named in the table and record its date, owner, permission boundary, and limitations. Inspect consented aggregate cohort data, paid renewals, acquisition spending, refunds, and changes in the product experience. Keep sponsored or incentivized usage visible. If the record contradicts the explanation, preserve both accounts and ask which definition, period, or workflow differs. Do not silently select the version that makes the opportunity look strongest.

Finish with a conditional statement: if the specified evidence supports the claim under these conditions, take the named next step; otherwise investigate the unresolved question. A good memo can make an eventual mistake more informative by preserving the original assumptions. It cannot turn an uncertain early-stage investment into a predictable outcome or transfer responsibility to a template. This worked exercise is about the decision process. It does not assert that a fictional company has met a real diligence standard or that a template can authorize an investment.

Use this worksheet

Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.

1. What decision is being considered?
2. Which evidence is strongest?
3. What is the contrary case?
4. Which terms need review?
5. What would change the conclusion?

Questions specific to this scenario

• Who renews without a discount?
• Which acquisition cohort is comparable?
• What happens after the promotion ends?

Inspect consented aggregate cohort data, paid renewals, acquisition spending, refunds, and changes in the product experience. Keep sponsored or incentivized usage visible.

A concrete next test

Compare a launch-promotion cohort with a later group using the same renewal and refund definitions. Ask what changed in price, acquisition channel, and product experience. Avoid attributing a blended retention change to the product before checking those differences.

Interpret the result

A good memo can make an eventual mistake more informative by preserving the original assumptions. It cannot turn an uncertain early-stage investment into a predictable outcome or transfer responsibility to a template.

Compare continued paid use with the initial launch spike. A narrow engaged cohort can be more informative than a large blended signup total.

Sources and method

These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.

• Angel Capital Association: Knowledge Center
• Investor.gov: Private Equity Funds