How can an angel write a decision memo about an AI application startup?

Write a decision memo that separates the company story from the investor's reasoning. State the question, evidence, competing interpretations, terms needing review, and unresolved risks. A memo should remain understandable after enthusiasm for the meeting fades.

Start with the decision

Use a claim-evidence-judgment structure and include a reason the investment could fail. Record what would change the conclusion. Keep any personal suitability or allocation decision separate from a generic educational example.

The illustrative scenario

This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.

The fictional team sells an AI assistant to small support departments. A demonstration works on familiar examples, but the product is still testing performance on new customers' queues. Founder time currently covers many exceptions.

Separate model output from completed customer work. A software revenue claim needs a matching view of model usage, human delivery, customer support, and rework.

Turn the scenario into an evidence decision

Consider a review of an AI application startup in which a confident explanation arrives before the supporting records. Start with the first question in the table. Write down what an answer would change: the next interview, the experiment's scope, a request for specialist review, or a decision to wait. A question without a consequence can produce a longer document while adding little understanding.

Next, inspect the record named in the table and record its date, owner, permission boundary, and limitations. Request a permissioned evaluation sample, customer usage cohorts, an exception log, and a cost model that includes human work. Keep actual results distinct from roadmap features. If the record contradicts the explanation, preserve both accounts and ask which definition, period, or workflow differs. Do not silently select the version that makes the opportunity look strongest.

Finish with a conditional statement: if the specified evidence supports the claim under these conditions, take the named next step; otherwise investigate the unresolved question. A good memo can make an eventual mistake more informative by preserving the original assumptions. It cannot turn an uncertain early-stage investment into a predictable outcome or transfer responsibility to a template. This worked exercise is about the decision process. It does not assert that a fictional company has met a real diligence standard or that a template can authorize an investment.

Use this worksheet

Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.

1. What decision is being considered?
2. Which evidence is strongest?
3. What is the contrary case?
4. Which terms need review?
5. What would change the conclusion?

Questions specific to this scenario

• Who reviews failures?
• How much founder work supports each account?
• Which results hold on unseen examples?

Request a permissioned evaluation sample, customer usage cohorts, an exception log, and a cost model that includes human work. Keep actual results distinct from roadmap features.

A concrete next test

Observe a permissioned workflow where the assistant fails or needs founder intervention. Record the human time and what the customer sees. Compare that case with the demo so the diligence discussion addresses delivered work rather than only the best familiar example.

Interpret the result

A good memo can make an eventual mistake more informative by preserving the original assumptions. It cannot turn an uncertain early-stage investment into a predictable outcome or transfer responsibility to a template.

Compare the promised workflow with the delivered workflow. The relevant question is whether adoption and delivery economics improve together.

Sources and method

These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.

• Angel Capital Association: Knowledge Center
• Investor.gov: Private Equity Funds