Angel investors
What downside scenarios should an angel investigate for a climate software startup?
a climate software startup: Investigate downside through concrete failure paths and dependencies rather than a generic risk list.
Investigate downside through concrete failure paths and dependencies rather than a generic risk list. Customer loss, technical failure, financing delays, team capacity, and external requirements may interact. Do not assume a downside scenario has a known probability.
Start with the decision
Choose several conditions that would invalidate the current plan and trace their consequences. Ask what the team could observe early and what responses are feasible. Keep total loss among the possible outcomes of a startup investment.
The illustrative scenario
This is an educational workbook. The company or fund and all numerical inputs below are fictional. They are not ADIN results, customer claims, market benchmarks, or a forecast.
The fictional product helps building operators reconcile energy data. A facilities team uses the dashboard, while a finance manager approves spending. Deployments depend on meter access and consistent records across properties.
A claimed environmental benefit is different from a measured change attributable to the product. Separate data quality, operational action, and any externally verified result.
Turn the scenario into an evidence decision
Consider a review of a climate software startup in which a confident explanation arrives before the supporting records. Start with the first question in the table. Write down what an answer would change: the next interview, the experiment's scope, a request for specialist review, or a decision to wait. A question without a consequence can produce a longer document while adding little understanding.
Next, inspect the record named in the table and record its date, owner, permission boundary, and limitations. Inspect permissioned meter samples, installation requirements, operator references, and the method used for claimed savings. Keep comparison periods and missing readings visible. If the record contradicts the explanation, preserve both accounts and ask which definition, period, or workflow differs. Do not silently select the version that makes the opportunity look strongest.
Finish with a conditional statement: if the specified evidence supports the claim under these conditions, take the named next step; otherwise investigate the unresolved question. A scenario exercise helps structure inquiry without predicting an outcome. It is most useful when it reveals a decision or missing evidence, not when it assigns unsupported probabilities to make uncertainty look measured. This worked exercise is about the decision process. It does not assert that a fictional company has met a real diligence standard or that a template can authorize an investment.
| Item | Illustration |
|---|---|
| Decision question | What assumption could fail? |
| Case-specific constraint | A claimed environmental benefit is different from a measured change attributable to the product. Separate data quality, operational action, and any externally verified result. |
| Record to inspect | Inspect permissioned meter samples, installation requirements, operator references, and the method used for claimed savings. Keep comparison periods and missing readings visible. |
| Comparison to preserve | Compare the full deployment process with the operator's current reporting. A useful dashboard still needs someone able to act on its findings. |
| Unresolved case question | Who supplies reliable data? |
Use this worksheet
Answer the questions with a source, date, owner, and next action. Mark an unknown as unknown. Use public or permissioned information and involve a qualified specialist when a question requires expertise beyond the team’s competence.
- What assumption could fail?
- What consequence follows?
- What early signal exists?
- What response is feasible?
- Which dependency cannot be controlled?
Questions specific to this scenario
- Who supplies reliable data?
- Which savings are actually measured?
- How long does a property rollout take?
Inspect permissioned meter samples, installation requirements, operator references, and the method used for claimed savings. Keep comparison periods and missing readings visible.
A concrete next test
Trace one claimed operational saving from raw meter data to a documented action and comparison period. Ask which part is measured and which part is inferred. Keep missing readings and unrelated changes visible before using the claim in an investment discussion.
Interpret the result
A scenario exercise helps structure inquiry without predicting an outcome. It is most useful when it reveals a decision or missing evidence, not when it assigns unsupported probabilities to make uncertainty look measured.
Compare the full deployment process with the operator's current reporting. A useful dashboard still needs someone able to act on its findings.
Sources and method
These primary resources provide background for the concepts. The fictional scenario, calculations, and worksheet are ADIN educational examples; the sources do not report or validate those invented results. Reviewed October 11, 2026.